Starshield, Ukraine and the value of owning your own infrastructure

Starshield is Starlink’s service for national customers and the defence market. Over time it has become an increasingly important part of communications in the war since Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, used for everything from controlling large and medium-sized drones to communication between units at the front and logistics. Russia’s advance in Ukraine slowed considerably when Starlink was shut off for the Russian side at the start of the year.

Last week Starshield suddenly, without warning, stopped working as intended for Ukrainian users. The system no longer worked for units moving faster than 160 km/h. That had immediate consequences. Among other things, the interceptor drones meant to stop Russian jet drones heading for Ukrainian cities stopped working. When interception fails, more drones get through, and that costs lives.

Exactly what the reason was is not entirely clear yet. Elon Musk has said himself that it is not SpaceX that controls Starshield, but the US military and ultimately the president. Trump for his part says he did not order it, while sources in the US administration claim that Musk came to Trump with the idea.

Who and why is really irrelevant. The reality is that a critical capability from the US defence industry was turned down overnight, without warning, and that another country decided it. Something that was unthinkable only a few years ago has become highly relevant. Which country can now base its critical infrastructure on US satellite services and risk denial of service if it displeases that country’s leadership one day? Suddenly it seems rather strategic that Norway already has its own military communications satellites in the High North. The question is how much other critical infrastructure we are still renting from others.

This could also become a bomb under the US arms industry, which has traditionally been heavily export-oriented. Every country has to ask: will US leverage be limited to Starshield, or could other services and systems also be involved? Canada is already considering replacing large parts of its F-35 order with Swedish Gripen, and after this the trend will probably accelerate. In Denmark, the digitalisation ministry is already replacing Microsoft with open alternatives.

This is obviously a difficult topic in several dimensions, because US weapons systems are often good, there are few or no European alternatives to them today, and the US is still a central security guarantor for Norway.

Meanwhile, Starshield is still degraded in Ukraine.

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